Luis Giusti, who currently serves as Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC (CSIS), and is a member of the Board of Governors at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, share with our readers some of his observations on the future of the industry considering the complexity of the current times, with special emphasis on the "Energy Trilemma".
Both his experience and recognition in 1998 as "World Oil Executive of the Year", conferred by the "Oil & Money" conference in London, and "Latin American Petroleum Executive of the Decade", awarded by the Inter-American Chamber of Commerce, Houston ", make it worthy of great credibility and his observations constitute information that must be considered, inmatter of hydrocarbons worldwide.
According to his analysis, the world currently consumes an equivalent of about 285 million bpd of oil equivalent. Of this total 34% comes from oil, 26% from natural gas, 22% from coal, 5% from nuclear energy, 2.2% from hydro and 10.8 from renewable sources (8% from biomass). That means 82% of primary energy comes from fossil fuels, which will continue to be the dominant force for many decades to come.
Giusti believes that the emphasis on the use of renewable energy is driven by environmental concerns. However, there is no practical sense that the discussion should be considered in an exclusive way, "welcome renewables, outside fossils". It is necessary to find a common space in the discussion about the energy future of the world.
This is what the "World Petroleum Congress" has called the "Energy Trilemma": To meet growing demand, sufficient energy is needed "Abundant, Reliable and Sustainable, including the required by 1.3 billion people who do not have access to electricity".
"A strong reality is that renewables are" niches ", some successful and others require subsidies that are sometimes large and additionally today we speak of electric cars as determinants in the rejection of fossil fuels but it must be said that currently there is only 1 million of electric cars in the world and behind the electric car is a fossil fuel that is burning", he said.